| Sent me email at | 3100 | a t |
whalen3 | d o t |
org |
| Essential
Prerequisite: CSP 2
strictly
enforced Other Prerequisites: CSP 1&6, Math 1070 |
Spring
2009 Click here for syllabus |
M-W 4:30-7 Mini-mester
313Aderhold M 7:15-9:45 Full semester 313Aderhold |
Preliminary
Class Schedule
(Deviations may be
necessary)
| Date | pages | Part 1:
What-If Modeling & Monte Carlo
Simulation |
||
| 1 | 1/5 1/5 |
Course Prerequisites &
Overview Introduction to Modeling |
Project
REVISED Pass Fail Assignmen REVISEDt |
|
| 2 | 1/12 1/7 |
1-40 |
Simon Pie 1 Basic
Model Demand = Potential - (Price * Sensitivity) Influence Diagram |
Simon
Pie Co. Skim 40-53 Simon Pies Part 2 & 3 Skim 60-65 Oak Products & constraints |
| 3 | 1/26 1/12 |
69-70 53-60 65-69 |
Breakeven
and Crossover Instructions for formatting graphs Exercises & Cases Review |
Evermore
Beauty Parlor p. 69-70 Xertech Skim 70-78 Case Studies |
| 4 |
2/2 1/14 |
153-159 | Monte
Carlo Simulation Simulation by Hand Simluation using Vlookup |
Project
1 Due; last day for Pass-Fail Assignment Exercise 18 p. 218 by hand Exercise 18 p. 218 by Excel |
| 5 |
2/9 1/21 |
210-268 |
Simulation
using Norminv Implementation Summary & Glossary Exercises & Cases Review |
Airline
Overbooking Practice Exam revised Key to questions not on proactice final |
| 6 | 2/16 1/26 |
|
Exam 1:
What-If
Modeling and Monte Carlo Simulation Bring a calculator. Computers NOT allowed! You may bring 1 sheet both sides of notes. |
|
| Date | pages
of pdf |
Part 2:
Forecasting (Do
not use textbook chapter; use my pdf)
|
||
| 7 | 2/23 |
Forecasting
Models (click here) p.1-8 of pdf |
Intro.
to
Forecasting; Delp[hi and Other Qualitative Methods Static Models: Naïve, Moving-average, Exponential-smoothing Bias, MAD, MAPE, MSE Trend models: Simple regression vs time |
Monopoly Motors |
| |
3/2 |
|
Spring
break for full semester
class |
|
| 8 |
3/9 |
9-14 | Introduction to
Seasonality Seasonal Time Series Forecast of Foundation Blocks Creating a Deseasonalized Time Series Creating Deseasonalized Trend model Forecasting Reseasonalized Values |
Project
2 Due Jewelry |
| 9 |
3/16 |
9-14 | Seasonal
Time Series
Forecast of Landscape
Blocks Indicator Models Housing Starts -> Landscape Blocks Simultaneous Indicators |
|
| Date | pages | Part 3: Decision Analysis & Statistical Quality Control | ||
| 10 | 3/23 |
79-102 | Introduction:
Decisions Under
Risk Expected Return (also called "Expected Monetary Value) Expected Value of Perfect Information Mid-Chapter Summry |
Roger Pinky Hot Dog Pushcarts Exercise 5 page 131 |
| 11 | 3/30 |
102-124 | Decision
Trees Sensitivity Analysis: variability of a solution to changes in the model & input data Incorporating New Information Prospering in an Information Economy |
Roger
Pinky Decision Tree Sonorola Case Project 3 Due Bags & Chips |
| 12 | 4/6 |
329- 355, slide show |
Introduction
to
Statistical Quality Control
Inherent random variability vs. assignable cause variability Attributes & Variables in Manufacturing & Service Two Sigma and Three Sigma Control Limits p charts for attributes Popcorn Example xbar & R charts for Variables Ladder Example Patterns & sample size What does "6 sigma" really mean? |
Video
Part 1 Video
Part 2 Skim p. 339-342 c-charts skim 355-358 software ads Control Chart Ex. 21-22 Capability Ex. 32,34 |
| 13 | 4/13 |
Review
for Exam 2 Another Decision Analysis Question |
Forecast Questions Decision Questions Quality Questions |
|
| 14 | 4/20 |
Exam
2:
Decision Analysis,
Statistical Quality Control & Forecasting Bring a calculator. Computers NOT allowed! You may bring 1 sheet both sides of notes. |
Project 4 Due | |
| 15 | 4/27
|
Review of the Course, Final Exam | ||