Schedule for MgS 3100: BusinessAnalysis 

The greatest challenge to any thinker is stating the problem
in a way that will allow a solution.             -Bertrand Russell

Thomsa Whalen, Ph.D.   
Send me email at 
3100  a
 t 
whalen3  d
 o
 t 
org
         Fax: 1-626 605 2586
Click here for syllabus     Departmental Syllabus & Resources

Essential Prerequisite:  CSP 2  
Other Prerequisites: CSP 1&6, Math 1070  
Maymester 2010
 306 Aderhold
Date     
pages Part 1: What-If Modeling & Monte Carlo Simulation
1 M 5/17


Course Prerequisites & Overview
Introduction to Modeling 
Profit = Reenue - Cost REVISED

2 Tu 5/18 1-53

Simon Pie 1 Basic Model
Demand = Potential - (Price * Sensitivity)
Simon Pie Co.
Influence Diagram
3 W 5/19
53-73
Breakeven  and Crossover
Choice of Technology
Xertech
4
Th 5/20
153-240 Monte Carlo Simulation
Simulation by Hand
Problem 18 p. 218 by hand
Foslin's Housewares by hand
5
F 5/21
210-268
Simulating Two Random Variables by Hand
Simluation using Vlookup

Simulation using Norminv
Implementation
Problem 18 p. 218 by Excel
Foslin's Housewares by Excel
6 M 5/24

Exam 1: What-If Modeling and Monte Carlo Simulation
Bring a calculator.  Computers NOT allowed!   
You may bring 1 sheet both sides of notes.
Practice Exam
Key to questions not on practice final
************************************************************************************************
Date pages  of pdf             
Part 2: Forecasting
           (Do not use textbook chapter; use my pdf)
7 Tu
5/25
Forecasting pdf

Study Guide p.1-9
Introduction to Forecasting
Jewelry                    
8
W
5/26

10-15 of pdf Introduction to Seasonality 
Calculating Seasonal Indexes
Creating a Deseasonalized Time Series 
Creating Deseasonalized Trend Model 
Forecasting Reseasonalized Values
Jewelry                      
9
Th
5/27
Study Guide
Review Seasonal Time Series
Leading Indicator Models 
Simultaneous Indicator Modelss
Foundation Blocks
Landscape Blocks
Pie Processing Cost



  ************************************************************************************************
Date  pages Part 3: Decision Analysis & Statistical Quality Control
10 F 5/
28

329-355
Introduction  to Statistical Quality Control                    
Video Part 1      Video Part 2
What does "6 sigma" really mean?
Control Chart Ex. 21-22
Capability Ex. 32,34


Memorial Day Holiday

11 Tu 6/
1
79-102 Introduction: Decisions Under Risk 
Expected Return  (also called "Expected Monetary Value")
Expected Value of Perfect Information
Roger Pinky
Hot Dog Pushcarts
Exercise 5 page 131
12
W6/
2
102-124 Decision Trees
Sensitivity Analysis
Incorporating New Information
Prospering in an Information Economy
Roger Pinky Decision Tree
Sonorola-EVSI
Bags & Chips
13 Th 6/
3


Review for Exam 2
Another Decision Analysis Question   
Revised Forecast Questions
Revised Decision Questions
Quality Questions
14 F 6/
4

Exam 2: Decision Analysis,  Statistical Quality Control & Forecasting
Bring a calculator.  Computers NOT allowed!   You may bring 1 sheet both sides of notes.
15 M 6/
7

Review of the Course,


Tu 6/
8

Comprehensive Final Exam
Bring a calculator.  Computers NOT allowed!   You may bring 1 sheet both sides of notes.