Chapter 3:
Basic Probability Concepts and Problems in Assessing Probabilities    83

Introduction    83
Types of Probability    85
        Classical, Relative Frequency, Subjective
        Simple, Joint, Marginal, Conditional
Computing Conditional Probabilities and Statistical Independence    90
Intervening Variables 96

Using Probability Trees to Reduce Managerial Judgment Errors    98
          Noncoherence Error: Unconditional, Joint, Conditional  98
          Avaliability Error  Bombings in Georgia,  Full Moon     103
          Anchoring Error   Stock,  Population     103
          Concreteness error   Car purchase, Employee Assessment   104      
Key Ideas    104
Exercises    105

Chapter 4: Sampling and Sampling Distributions    113
The Need for Statistical Inference Methods    113
           Review Chapter 1
          Trade off among Sample size, Margin of Error, Confidence
Exploring the Distribution of the Sample Mean    117
The Normal Distribution    126
Bell shaped Curve
                Skip Exploring the Distribution of the Sample Proportion    133
Skip Exploring the Distribution of the Sample Variance       141
Key Ideas and Overview    149
Exercises    150
Appendices    159