DSc 8350, Risk Benefit Analysis

Fall Semester 2003,  W 4:30-7:00  331 General Classroom Bldg
 

Dr. Thomas Whalen

voice 404-651-4080            fax 404-651-3498
email 8350[at]whalens[dot]org
Texts: The main "textbook" is the website www.gsu.edu/~dscthw/8350/03sched.htm
The secondary text (not in the bookstore) is
Cases in Management Science by L. Lapin &  W. Whisler
Grading: 30% Midterm (Individual)
30% Final (individual)
30% Project (Individual or in a team of TWO)
10% Class Participation, Homework, Pop Quizzes
Project:  Plan A: Use one of the decision analysis or game theory cases from Cases in Management Science as a springboard to show off what you have learned.  A correct and complete solution to the probalem as stated earns a C+; higher grades are earned if you  add to the problem in order to demonstrate addtional issues that can arise and solutions that can be applied.  Be creative
Plan B: Same as plan A, but using a problem you're interested in instead of one of cases fromCases in Management Science.

In this course you will learn concepts and techniques to help balance the uncertain costs and benefits of competing alternatives.  You will learn to deal with environments ranging from well-defined probabilities of monetary profits and losses at one extreme to purely qualitative possibilities at the other.  However, most practical decision making occurs in the fuzzy area between these two extremes, so that is where we shall place our primary emphasis.
Specific techniques we will cover include:
Bayesian Subjective Probability
Von Neumann-Morgenstern Utility Measures
Ordinal Probability & Utility
Computing With Words
Belief & Plausibility
The goal is to craft a decision that is well justified by the available information and buttressed by logical arguments.  This will help you implement individual decisions with confidence, and argue for decisions in your organizations with effectiveness.  In the long run, the methods of this course will also tend to maximize the cumulative net benefits you achieve throughout your career.

Click here for schedule of classes and readings