MgS 8160, Risk Benefit Analysis
Fall 2008, 314 ALC, Monday 4:30-7:00

Guidelines for Project

Dr. Whalen Office hours in cyberspace; email

1-626 605 2586

Part 1: Risk
*** P(A|B) does NOT equalP(B|A) ***

Part 2: Benefit
A bird in the hand is worh 1.414 in the bush

Part 3: Real Options: Market-Based Utility

Time and chance happen to them all.

Texts: The main "textbook" is the website
You also need to buy the package of five cases available at "The Printshop" at 6 Decatur Street

Grading: 30% Midterm (Individual)
30% Final (individual)
30% Project (Individual or in a team of TWO)
10% Class Participation, Homework, Pop Quizzes

Project:  Plan A: Use the "Ear" minicase as a springboard to show off what you have learned.  A correct and complete solution to the probalem as stated earns a B-; higher grades are earned if you  add to the problem in order to demonstrate addtional issues that can arise and solutions that can be applied.  Be creative.
Plan B: Same as plan A, but using a problem you're interested in instead of the "Ear" minicase.

In this course you will learn concepts and techniques to help balance the uncertain costs and benefits of competing alternatives.  You will learn to deal with environments ranging from well-defined probabilities of monetary profits and losses at one extreme to purely qualitative possibilities at the other, as well as the fuzzy area between these two extremes,which is where most practical decision making occurs in practics.

Specific techniques we will cover are listed on the schedule.The goal is to craft a decision that is well justified by the available information and buttressed by logical arguments.  This will help you implement individual decisions with confidence, and argue for decisions in your organizations with effectiveness.  In the long run, the methods of this course will also tend to maximize the cumulative net benefits you achieve throughout your career.