MgS 8160, Risk Benefit Analysis
Very Preliminary Schedule
Fall 2008, 314 ALC, Monday 4:30-7:00


Part 1: Risk
1
Aug
 18
Prospering in an "information economy"
Decisions Under Ignorance: Churchill & Whalen p1-6
Sample Problems     More sample problems
Payoff Matrices and Decision Rules
Roger Pinky

Aug
 25
Intro to Decisions Under Risk: Churchill & Whalen p7-11
Maximizing Expected Value 
Minimizing Expected Regret 
Expected Value of Perfect Information: a Regret Perspective 
Hot Dog Pushcarts
Risk Slides
Roger Pinky's Decision Tree
Case: "Value of Information in Entrepreneurial Ventures"
Sep
  1
Labor Day Holiday


Sep
 8
Introduction to Multistage Decision Making

Case: "Real Options: Valuing Managerial Flexibility"
Case: "Better Decisions w/ Preference Theory" p.123-129
        Petro Enterprises by Expected Monetary Value
*** P(A|B) does NOT equal P(B|A) ***

Sep
15
Soft Decision Analysis p1-4 --- Bayes' Theorem
Drug Testing
Bags and Chips
 Slides

Sep
22

Living in an information economy: EVUSI & EVSI 
Soft Decision Analysis p1-4
Information Value: in Use & In Exchange
Measuring the Information in an observation
Chip Audio
Daltex Shares
Lala Lovely

6
Sep
 29
Interpretations of Probability 
          Notes on odds and "Dutch Books"
Booikmaking
Decisions Without Prior Probabilities  
Dutch Book spreadsheets
 Critical Odds method for 2 actions, 2 states  
 Bayes Theorem in Odds Form
 Sensitivity Analysis    
7
Oct
 6
The Basic Concepts of Game Theory 
Two-Person Strictly Competitive Games
Sensitivity Homework Assignment Due
Stackelberg Gamet

Oct
 13
Lose-Lose Games:
             Chicken, Tragedy of Commons, Prisoner's dilemma
             Stag Hunt     Price War     
Coalition Games
Take-Home Midterm Distributed
 Preview of Midterm