Preview of Midterm

The first 21 questions pertain to one case similar to the ones in the Churchill notes, but with additional questions covering materian from Resnik and lecture. Here are the questions, slightly censored:
     
    1. Should XXX invest in YYY?
    2. If XXX follows your advice in #1, what is their expected return?
    3. What is the regret if they do not invest and STATE1?
    4. What is the regret if they invest and STATE2?
    5. What is the Expected Value of Perfect Information?
    6. Fill in the two prior probabilities and 4 likelihoods in the spaces provided.
    7. Fill in the four joint probabilities in the spaces provided.
    8. Fill in the two marginal probabilities in the spaces provided.
    9. Fill in the 4 posterior probabilities, expressed as fractions, in the spaces provided.
    10. If the report is favorable, what is the expected return of investing?
    11. If the report is unfavorable, what is the expected return of investing anyway
    12. If XXX is about to get information for free and they make the best possible use of the information, what is their expected return?
    13. What is the Expected Value of Sample Information?
    14. Should XXX build a prototype & get consumer reaction if it costs $10,000?
    15. What are the prior odds in favor of STATE1, W(STATE1)?
    16. What is the likelihood ratio for a favorable report, LR(F)?
    17. If the report is favorable, what are the posterior odds in favor of STATE1, W(STATE1|F)?
    18. What is the value in use of a favorable report?
    19. What is the value in use of an unfavorable report?
    20. What is the value in exchange of a favorable report?
    21. What is the value in exchange of an un favorable report?
Questions 22-25 are multiple choice questions about a decision under ignorance;
Question 26 asks for a numerical regret value.

Questions 27-31 ask for formulas expressed using symbols I will provide.

Questions 32-36 are matching questions covering laws of probability.

Questions 37 and 38 are SHORT essay questions. One or two good sentences each will be perfectly ample.

Questions 1-36 are 2.5 points each; questions 37 and 38 are 5 points each.

The test is open book, open notes, and will last the entire class period.