The Effective Decision pages 1-20 of HBR textbook
1 Classification = Anchoring & Adjustment Heuristic, Guessing at Patterns Heuristic
Generic for us = use our anchor
Unique for us but generic overall = use someone else's anchor
Newly generic (1965 NE outage, thalidomide) = create a new anchor to use next time
Truly unique = don't use anchoring & adjustment heuristic (Cuban missile crisis; John Paul Jones)
2. Definition = Framing Heuristic
Automobile safety: fatalities per 10,000 miles versusn fatalities per 10,000 accidents.
3. Specification = Framing Heuristic, Optimism & Pessimism Heuristics
Personalities vs. "Constitution" at GM in 1922.
Recovery in pre-election 1932 vs. Reform in post-election 1933.
Overthrew Castro vs. Look Like a Spontaneous Uprising in Bay of Pigs 1961.
Risk taking, gambling, hoping for miracles.
4. Decision = Under this heading, Drucker warns against a type of "Prudence Bias"
"Half a Loaf" compromises versus "Half a Baby" compromises.
When I was designing information systems, executives would ask for terribly
difficult things that also didn't seem all that useful. I learned to
ask them what they would wish for ideally; very often that was easier than
the "compromise" request they made originally trying to make things easier
4. The Action = Status Quo Heuristic
A decision to change is never successful until the status quo heuristic has changed from opposing it to surprising it.
The people who actually do the work mwst be selected, trainel, equipped,
empowered, and simply informed to be able to do it. Willingness, even
if sincere, isn't enough.
5. The Feedback = Concreteness Heuristic, avoid Availability Bias
Reports are abstractions; go and look!