Risk Benefit Analysis

The Expected Return Criterion
    A mathematical necessity for the casino and life insurance industries
    A heuristic for almost everyone else

Risk Aversion

Declining Marginal Utility: A partial explanation and a Useful Heuristic

Possibility of Ruin refutes the "log run" argument

The Certainty Effect           The Certainty Effect: comments

The Framing Heuristic

Time and Chance
        Life is uncertain: Eat dessert first!
        Risk Adjusted Financial Discount Rate versus Von Neuman-Morgenstern Utility

"The race is not to the swift or the battle to the strong,
nor does food come to the wise or wealth to the brilliant or favor to the learned;
but time and chance happen to them all."

Ecclesiastes 9:11


"There has never been a horse that couldn't be rode
there's never been a cowboy that couldn't be thrown
I don't care how big your ranch is
you pays your money and you takes your chances."

Rod McKuen