Heuristics & Biases
| Heuristics:
Usually give reasonably good results quickly & easily Can fail unpredictably Can also fail in predictable ways; these are the biases "hidden traps." Most of these heuristics can work well or can turn into harmful biases in any of the stages of problem solving, but the details differ depending on what stage of problem solving you are in. Similarly, most of the heuristics are used (and abused) by people of all cognitive styles, but again the details differ depending on what cognitive style you are using. Click here for some ideas about taming heuristics and biases |
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| Name |
Heuristic |
Bias |
| FRAMING |
Viewing a need in the real world
as a "problem" you can work on solving |
Mistaking your view of the
problem for the real need. "Framing Bias" |
| ANCHORING & ADJUSTMENT | Assuming a starting point and thinking about adjustments from there | Being overly dominated by the
assumed starting point |
| STATUS QUO |
"Business as Usual" "If it ain't broke, don't fix it" |
Bias against anything new |
| SUNK COST |
Treating the resources already
spent on one alternative as an estimate of the resources you'll have to
spend
all over again to start a new one. |
Treating the resources already
spent on one alternative as a real cost of abandoning it for something
better |
| CONFIRMATION |
If you're leaning towards an action, see if you can prove it's a good one. | If you only look for supporting
evidence, you could miss a fatal flaw |
| COGNITIVE OVERCONFIDENCE |
Decisiveness Refuseal to be haunted by doubt |
Self delusion |
| PRUDENT ESTIMATION |
"Conservative Estimates" | Missed
opportunities Especially dangerous in group problem solving |
| RISK AVERSION |
"A bird in the hand is worth two
in the bush" Avoid probability of ruin |
Missed opportunities Risk aversion is attractive for individual but bad for the economy as a whole "Certainty Effect" |
| SELECTIVE PERCEPTION |
Knowing what you're looking for | None so blind as those who will not see |
| RECALLABILITY ("AVAILABILITY ") |
If an idea doesn't fit in with
the obvious data, it's surely suspect |
Non-obvious things can be most important, or even most common. |
| GUESSING
AT PATTERNS |
Quickly spotting the trend or
the big picture |
"Outguessing randomness" --
seeing patterns that don't exist |
| REPRESENT- ATIVENESS |
"If it looks like a duck and
walks like a duck and quacks like a duck" |
Ignoring the base rate can lead
to serious preventable errors |
| MOST LIKELY SCENARIO |
Avoids wasting time on
possibilities that probably won't happen |
Rare events can be the most
important |
| OPTIMISM
|
Go for the gold! |
Chasing after dreams, ignoring
risks |
| PESSIMISM |
Avoid unpleasant surprises |
missed opportunities |