Jim Marton's Papers - updated 8/30/11

Publications:

1. The Effects of Premium Increases on Enrollment in SCHIP Programs: Findings from Three States - Inquiry, 43 (4), Winter 2006/2007, pp.378-392.
(with Jenny Kenney, Andy Allison, Julia Costich,  Josh McFeeters)

(earlier version also available here)

Abstract: This study examines the effects of higher premiums on SCHIP enrollment in Kansas, Kentucky, and New Hampshire; three states that implemented premium changes in 2003. We used state administrative enrollment records from 2001 to 2004-05 to track changes in total caseloads, new enrollments, and disenrollment timing in premium-paying categories of SCHIP before and after the premium changes were implemented. We found that premium increases were associated with lower caseloads in SCHIP in the three states and with earlier disenrollment in Kentucky and New Hampshire.  Premium increases appeared to have greater disenrollment effects on lower-income families.

2. State Government Cash and In-Kind Benefits: Intergovernmental Fiscal Transfers and Cross-Program Substitution - Journal of  Urban Economics, 61 (1), January 2007, pp. 1-20. (with Dave Wildasin)

(earlier versions also available as UKCPR working paper DP2006-02 and IFIR working paper 2006-01)

Abstract: US states provide both cash and health insurance benefits for the poor, partially financed by fiscal transfers from the Federal government.  The 1996 welfare reform drastically reduces Federal support for cash transfers at the margin , lowering the relative price to states of providing benefits to the poor through Medicaid.  This paper analyzes the comparative-statics response of state governments to such changes in intergovernmental transfers, showing (in central cases) that they can contribute not only to reductions in state expenditures on cash benefits but to increases in expenditures on Medicaid, whether or not beneficiary populations are mobile among states.
3. The Impact of the Introduction of Premiums into a SCHIP Program - Journal of  Policy Analysis and Management, 26 (2), Spring 2007, pp. 237-255.

(earlier version also available as UKCPR working paper DP2006-01)

 Abstract: This paper examines the introduction of premiums into the SCHIP program in Kentucky.  Kentucky introduced a $20 monthly premium for SCHIP coverage for children with family incomes between 151% and 200% of the federal poverty level in December 2003.  Administrative data between 2001 and 2004 is used to estimate a Cox proportional hazard model that predicts enrollment duration in this premium-paying category.  The results suggest that a premium reduces the length of enrollment and that the effect is much stronger in the first two months after the introduction of the premium.  Similar results are not found for the non-premium category. 
4. Medicaid Expenditures and State Budgets: Past, Present, and Future - National Tax Journal, 60 (2), June 2007, pp. 279-304. (with Dave Wildasin)

(earlier version also available as IFIR working paper 2007-04)

Abstract:
Rapid spending growth has made Medicaid a major element in state budgets; financial support from Federal matching grants is now a main component of state government revenue and of intergovernmental fiscal relations.   We discuss recent, ongoing, and prospective reforms of intergovernmental finances and regulations, including the 1996 welfare reform, the introduction of Medicare Part D, Section 1115 waivers, SCHIP reauthorization, and a shift to block grants.  Each would affect the assignment of responsibilities between the state and Federal governments, the viability of which is questionable due to current and future interstate demographic and policy variation, population aging, and Federal fiscal imbalances.
5. Responses to Declining Retiree Health Benefit Coverage - in Government Spending and the Elderly, edited by D. B. Papadimitriou, 2007, New York: Palgrave Macmillan. (with Steve Woodbury)

(also available as Upjohn Institute staff working paper No. 06-128)

Abstract: Employer-provided health benefit coverage for workers who retire before age 65 has fallen over the last decade. We examine a cohort of male workers from the Health and Retirement Survey to examine questions about the dynamics of retiree health benefits and the relationship between retiree health benefit and retirement behavior. Having a better understanding of this relationship is important for the policy debate over the best way to increase health coverage for older Americans without reducing the incentive to work. On dynamics, we find that between 1992 and 1996, 24 percent of full-time workers who had retiree health benefits lost their coverage, while 15 percent of full-time workers who lacked coverage gained it. Also, of the full-time employed men who were covered by retiree health benefits in 1992 and had retired by 1996, 3 percent were uninsured, and 15 percent were covered by health insurance other than employer-provided insurance. On the relationship between retiree health benefits and retirement, we find that workers with retiree benefits were 29 to 55 percent more likely to retire than those without. We also find that workers who are eligible for retiree health benefits tend to take advantage of them when they are relatively young.

6. Assessing Effects of SCHIP Premiums: Findings from Arizona and Kentucky -
Health Services Research42 (6p2), December 2007, pp. 2354-2372. (with Jenny Kenney, Julia Costich,  Josh McFeeters)

(earlier version also available here)

Abstract:
In this study
we use administrative data from two states, Arizona and Kentucky, which introduced new premiums for certain income categories in their SCHIP programs in 2004 and 2003, respectively.  We use multivariate hazard models to study rates of disenrollment and re-enrollment for the recipients who had been enrolled in the categories of SCHIP in which the new premiums were implemented.  Competing hazard models are used to determine if recipients leaving SCHIP following the introduction of the premium were obtaining other public coverage or exiting public insurance entirely at higher rates.  We also usedtime-series models to measure the effect of premiums on changes in caseloads in premium-paying SCHIP and other categories of public coverage and we assessed the budgetary implications of imposing premiums.

7. A Model of Commodity Differentiation with Indivisibilities and Production - Economic Theory, 34 (1), January 2008, pp. 85-106. (with Marco Castaneda)

(earlier version also available here)

Abstract:
This paper presents an existence theorem in a general equilibrium model of a production economy with commodity differentiation and indivisibilities.  The model is motivated by the existence of markets with indivisible commodities, such as the markets for automobiles, health insurance, and computers.  As is standard in the literature, the space of commodity characteristics is described by a compact metric space and a commodity vector is described by an integer-valued Borel measure on the space of commodity characteristics.  An atomless measure space of producers and consumers is assumed to overcome the problem of non-convexity of the production and consumption sets induced by indivisibilities.
8. Employee Choice of Flexible Spending Account Participation and Health Plan - Health Economics, 17(7), July 2008, pp. 793-813. (with Bart Hamilton)
(earlier version also available here)

Abstract:
Despite the fact that flexible spending accounts (FSAs) are becoming an increasingly popular employer-provided health benefit, there has been very little empirical study of FSA use among employees at the individual level.  This study contributes to the literature of FSAs through the use of a unique dataset that provides three years of employee level matched benefits data.  We examine the determinants of FSA participation and contribution levels using yearly order probit models and a random effects ordered probit model.  FSA participation and health plan choice decisions are also modeled jointly in each year using conditional logit models.  We find that, even after controlling for a number of other demographic characteristics, non-whites are less likely to participate in the FSA program than whites.  We also find evidence that choosing health plans with more expected out of pocket expenses is correlated with use of the FSA program.

9. SCHIP Premiums, Enrollment, and Expenditures: A Two State, Competing Hazard Analysis - Health Economics, 19(7), July 2010, pp. 772-791. (with Pat Ketsche and Mei Zhou)
Abstract: Policymakers may impose or increase premiums for SCHIP recipients under an assumption that family income is exogenous, implying no spill-over effects on other public health insurance such as Medicaid.  Using state administrative data on the introduction of a new premium in Kentucky’s SCHIP program and an increase in existing premiums in Georgia’s SCHIP program, we test this assumption by estimating competing risk models that differentiate between different exit routes from SCHIP coverage.  The theoretical motivation for this analysis is a model of family budget constraints in which changes in SCHIP premiums create notches in the budget constraint that may cause families to re-evaluate their labor / leisure trade-off.  We find the premium changes in each state lead to an increase in the likelihood of children leaving the SCHIP program for no public health insurance coverage in the months immediately following the premium changes.  This short run disenrollment effect in each state is offset to some extent by a short run increase in the likelihood that children transfer to lower income eligibility / lower premium categories of SCHIP.  In Kentucky we also find a short run increase in the likelihood that children exit SCHIP by transferring to Medicaid coverage.  SCHIP covered children in Georgia are found to be less likely to transfer into Medicaid immediately following the premium increase.
10. CHIP Premiums, Health Status, and the Insurance Coverage of Children - Inquiry, 47(3), Fall 2010, pp. 199-214. (with Jeff Talbert)

(also available as an ERIU working paper)

Abstract: This study uses the introduction of premiums into Kentucky's Children's Health Insurance Program (KCHIP) to examine whether the enrollment impact of new premiums varies by child health type. We also examine the extent to which children find alternative coverage after premium nonpayment. Public insurance claims data suggest that those with chronic health conditions are less likely to leave public coverage. We find little evidence of a differential impact of premiums on enrollment among the chronically ill. Our survey of nonpayers shows that 56% of responding families found alternative private or public health coverage for their children after losing CHIP.

11. Funding Trauma Care in Georgia - Journal of the Medical Association of Georgia 99(4), December 2010, pp. 19-20. (with Pat Ketsche)

Abstract: On November 2, Georgia voters rejected legislatively-referred constitutional amendment number 2 that would have provided funds to support the statewide trauma care network, with 53% of votes against the measure.  This amendment was placed on the November ballot by the Georgia legislature and it imposed a $10 annual trauma charge on each motor vehicle designed to carry ten or fewer persons.  These funds were to be placed in a designated trauma trust fund and would have raised an estimated $80 million per year in a manner that is proportional to citizens engagement in an activity related to trauma care, driving. Potential opposition to the amendment may have been due to some distaste for any new taxes or fees during a time of economic uncertainty and some unwillingness from parts of the state with greater trauma care coverage to subsidize coverage for other parts of the state.  The purpose of this paper is to discuss the background related to trauma care funding in Georgia and general challenges associated with funding trauma care.

12. Disparate Effects of CHIP Premiums on Disenrollment for Minorities - Current Issues in Health Economics, Volume 290, edited by D. Slottje and R. Tchernis, December 2010, United Kingdom: Emerald Group. (with Cynthia Searcy and Jennifer Ghandi)

(earlier version also available here)

Abstract: This paper examines whether or not the introduction of a new $20 family premium in Kentucky’s CHIP program in late 2003 had a differential impact on the enrollment duration of children in different demographic groups, with a special focus on any potential differences by race/ethnicity.  A competing risk hazard model is estimated in order to differentiate between children exiting CHIP via a transfer to Medicaid and children that exited public coverage completely.  We find that non-white children are generally more likely to exit than white children.  This general white / non-white difference increases immediately following the introduction of the $20 premium.

13. The Effects of Medicaid and CHIP Policy Changes on Receipt of Preventive Care among Children in Kentucky and Idaho - Health Services Research 46 (1p2), February 2011, pp. 298-318. (with Jenny Kenney, Jennifer Pelletier, Ariel Klein, and Jeff Talbert)

Abstract: The objective of this paper is to examine children’s receipt of preventive care in Medicaid/CHIP in two states that adopted policy changes aimed at promoting greater provision of preventive care to children using Medicaid/CHIP claims and enrollment data from Idaho and Kentucky from 2004 to 2008.  Linear probability and hazard models are used to estimate policy effects with either a pre-post model or a pre-post model with a comparison group. Models control for age, gender, race/ethnicity, and eligibility category.   The effects of the increased reimbursement for well-child care were small, suggesting at most an increase in the probability of having any annual well-child visit of 1 to 3 percentage points.  The introduction of the Wellness PHA benefit in Idaho was associated with between 11 and 29 percentage point increases in well-child receipt among the three key target groups and with quicker receipt of well-child care following CHIP enrollment.  Children were 1 to 6 percentage points more likely to receive preventive dental care and received preventive dental care more quickly after the policy changes.  Policy changes such as fee increases, incentives, and delivery system changes can lead to increases in preventive care use among children. However, additional policy changes would be required to address the persistent shortfalls in preventive care receipt for children.


Papers Under Review / Revision Requests:

1.
The Influence of Retiree Health Benefits on Retirement Patterns (with Steve Woodbury)  -- revision requested

(earlier version available as an Upjohn Institute staff working paper 09-149)

Abstract: We estimate the effect of employer offers of retiree health benefits (RHBs) on the timing of retirement using a sample of Health and Retirement Study (HRS) men observed over a period of up to 12 years. We hypothesize that the effect of RHBs differs for workers of different ages—a hypothesis we can test now that the main HRS cohort has aged sufficiently. We apply three well-know panel data estimators and find that, for men in their 50s, RHBs have little or no effect on retirement decisions; however, a substantial effect emerges for men in their early 60s. We use simulations to illustrate the changing pattern of retirement resulting from RHBs.

2. Employer Provided Health Insurance and the Adverse Selection Problem (with Marco Castaneda) -- revision requested

Abstract: Establishing the existence of equilibrium in insurance markets has always been a challenging task for economists due to imperfect information.  As illustrated by Rothschild and Stiglitz (1976), imperfect information may lead to complete market failure.  This paper extends the standard model of adverse selection by introducing employers that choose the set of policies that are offered to consumers.  Introducing employers allows for the existence of multiple pooling and a unique separating equilibrium.  Data on age and insurance premiums from the 1987 National Medical Expenditure Survey provides evidence of pooling in the employer-provided health insurance market. 

3. The Effects of Medicaid Policy Changes on Adults’ Service Use Patterns in Kentucky and Idaho (with Jenny Kenney, Jennifer Pelletier, Ariel Klein, and Jeff Talbert)
-- under review

Abstract: In 2006, Idaho and Kentucky became two of the first states in the nation to implement changes to their Medicaid programs under authority granted by the 2005 Deficit Reduction Act (DRA) (PL 109-171).  Concerns about Medicaid spending growth in both states led to a desire for Medicaid reform to make the programs sustainable for future generations and to encourage the greater use of preventive care and the adoption of healthier lifestyles.  The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of the key reforms in each state on the utilization rates among non-elderly adult Medicaid recipients for a variety of services, including physician visits, dental visits, emergency room visits, inpatient stays, and prescription drugs.  While the majority of adults in Medicaid in both states received primary medical care in the past year, rates of preventive care and dental care utilization are very low.  The introduction of service limits on brand name prescriptions in Kentucky led to a shift towards generics.  New copayments for a variety of services in Kentucky did not appear to have a dramatic impact on utilization.  The addition of an adult wellness exam to the Medicaid benefit package in Idaho had modest effects on service use.  The adoption of managed care for dental provision for nondisabled adults increased both the use of overall and preventive dental care.

4. A Tale of Two Cities? The Heterogeneous Impact of Medicaid Managed Care in Kentucky (with Aaron Yelowitz and Jeff Talbert) -- under review

        (earlier version available as an Andrew Young School of Policy Studies working paper 11-28)

Abstract: Does managed care produce lower health care utilization and costs through better aligned financial incentives and alternative delivery methods (the “pure HMO” effect) or by attracting more healthy enrollees (plan endogeneity)? The purpose of this paper is to shed new light on this fundamental question using a quasi-experimental approach that exploits the timing and county specific implementation of Medicaid managed care plans in two distinct sub-sets of Kentucky counties in the late 1990s. We find large differences in the relative success of each region in reducing utilization that are likely driven by important differences in plan design. Asthmatic children enrolled in the plan that was successful at reducing utilization did not appear to suffer adverse health outcomes as a result.


Working Papers:


1. Enhanced Citizenship Verification and Children's Medicaid Coverage (with Angie Snyder and Mei Zhou)

Abstract: This paper examines the impact of Deficit Reduction Act of 2005 mandated citizenship verification requirements on the Medicaid coverage of children using state administrative data from Georgia.  Our analysis suggests that children enrolled via the “Low Income Medicaid” eligibility category of Georgia Medicaid (based on the 1996 Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC) standards) that were enrolled prior to the reform were slightly more likely to exit during the first "high impact" recertification in which the enhanced citizenship verification was binding than children whose first recertification occurred just prior to the reform.  In addition, we observe a slightly lower re-entry probability among children exiting during a "high impact" first recertification.  Assuming at least some of the exiting children are non-citizens, the fact that the exit and re-entry rates associated with a “high impact” first recertification are only modestly different from other first recertification months suggests that the reform is probably not having a dramatic impact on citizens.

2. Estimating Premium Elasticities for Public Health Insurance Coverage (with Pat Ketsche, Kathleen Adams, Angie Snyder, and Mei Zhou)

Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to estimate the duration of CHIP enrollment as a function of premiums that vary within and between income groups and over time. A secondary objective is to simulate changes in enrollment and calculate price elasticities controlling for health status and age.  We use administrative CHIP application and eligibility data to estimate the duration of enrollment as a function of the effective premium.  We control for family characteristics (family income, family size, number of adults in the home, parental age, location (rural, urban, other), race/ethnicity, prior participation in public coverage) and county characteristics such as unemployment rate, share uninsured, and poverty rate. We also control for health status of the child by matching claims to eligibility data to identify children with chronic conditions and high dollar claims.  We conduct sensitivity analysis including children starting their spell with zero premium in the first month of enrollment.  Consistent with prior research, we find that increasing premiums results in shorter duration of enrollment.  Price elasticity for the cohort as a whole is -0.20, consistent with price elasticities identified in the private sector for moderate income families. However, among children facing zero premium at the start of the spell, premium changes result in a significantly larger response (-0.33) than among children facing a positive premium at the start of the spell (-0.15).  High utilization and the presence of chronic conditions reduce price elasticity. 

3. Does More Public Health Spending Buy Better Health Outcomes? (with Chris Parker, Karen Minyard, and Peggy Honore)

Abstract: In this paper we attempt to address a persistent question in the health policy literature: Does more public health spending buy better health outcomes?  This is a difficult question to answer due to unobserved differences in public health preferences across locations as well as the potential for an endogenous relationship between public health spending and public health outcomes.  We take advantage of the unique way in which public health is funded in the state of Georgia to avoid the endogeneity problem.  Using a seven year panel dataset on Georgia county public health expenditures and outcomes, we find that more public health spending decreases infant and cancer mortality rates, as well as cancer and diabetes morbidity rates.