 

April 5, 2018
(1) Our next meeting on Wednesday, April 18 will be our last class
sessionhow time flies by!. I anticipate that the final exam will start at
7:10 and you will have 2.5 hours to complete it. We will begin the class by
reviewing homework 7 and then move on to various topics with an anticipated
stop time of around 7pm to allow a transition to the final exam. In the
interim, I would like to do a team study of an option pricing application to
a private equity investment. Also, and depending on time, we will
discuss assorted topics related to American option pricing, currency options
and futures options.
(2) As a reminder, the deadline for the submission of the financial data
analytics project is 6pm on Monday, April 23.


March 22, 2018
(1) Homework 7 is now posted and is due on Wednesday, April 18. Please note
that you will need to download option prices following the close of trading
on Thursday, April 5 from the optionseducation.org website.
(2) In our next class (April 4), we will begin by reviewing the latest
homework assignment no. 6. Following that we continue our discussion of
options. We will review volatility estimation including the historic and
implied volatility methods. We will also discuss "volatility smiles".
Following that we will explore ways to make adjustments to the BlackScholes
model to accommodate dividends and will consider both discrete and
continuously paid dividends. We will then discuss the "Greeks",
which refer to the various sensitivities of option prices to the model's
various inputs, and we will also discuss their uses for risk management.
With any remaining time, we will discuss American option pricing and
conditions for early exercise.
Please remember to bring to class your main option handouts from the prior
class.


March 8, 2018
(1) Homework 6 is now posted and is due on Wednesday, April 4. You will
need to obtain market information from the optionseducation.org website
related to trading conducted on Thursday, March 22. Please note that you
will need to do this after the market closes on Thursday, but before it
opens for trading Firday morning as the price information is not stored
historically.
(2) On Monday, we will begin class by reviewing the swaps homework
assignment no. 5 and then conclude our coverage of swaps with a discussion
of currency swaps and the notion of DV01 and hedging as applies to swaps.
Please remember to bring your swaps handout from our last class with you.
(3) With the remaining time, we will then move into optionsour second
derivatives building block. Initially, we will look at option payoff
diagrams and associated strategies, look at how to read price quotations and
option chains, and discuss other institutional arrangements. We will then
discuss boundary conditions and delve into various pricing models including
the binomial and BlackScholes models. As time permits, we will discuss (a)
historical and implied volatility estimation, and (b) how to make
adjustments to pricing models to accommodate dividends, both discrete and
continuously paid dividends.
(4) Before coming to class, please familiar yourself with the
optionseducation.org website and how to read an option quote and option
chain. To practice, go to the website, look for "Quotes", then enter a stock
symbol and click "Go." Then click and look around to see the variety of
information presented.
(5) Also, I will be emailing all a copy of "Option!", which is a really nice
option pricing software (I will be sending it through the university's "send
a file" procedure; when you receive the notification please download asap as
its availability will disappear if you do not download it soon. After
downloading, please familiarize yourself with it and be sure that it is
fully functional and operational.


February 22, 2018
(1) Assignment 5 is now posted and is due on Wednesday, March 21. You will
need to remember to obtain a variety of market information related to
trading as of Thursday, March 8.
(2) In our next class, we will conclude our study of stock index and single
stock futures. Following that we then move into discussing swaps. We will
consider various institutional dimensions of the market as well as how to
both price and value a swap. Our initial focus will be on interest rate
swaps. During class we will also get into bootstrapping techniques for
constructing the zero discount curve and we will also explore the importance
of making convexity adjustments when pricing and valuing swaps. Our
discussion of currency and commodity swaps will likely be covered in the
subsequent class depending on progress.
(3) I will email each of you a teaching note on "The Pricing and Valuation
of Swaps" that you should read carefully before coming to class. (This can
also be found on the course website under Syllabus/Readings and also in
Chapter 28 of Financial Derivatives: Pricing and Risk Management, Kolb and
Overdahl, editors, Wiley, 2010). I will also email you a copy of the *SWAP*
software that you can also find posted under Syllabus/Readings on course
website. Please be sure that you have your *SWAP* software fully
operational and that you have turned on the appropriate "system
requirements" including the required addins and enabled macros.


February 9, 2018
(1) Assignment No. 4 is now posted (due on Wednesday, March 7). Please note
that you will need to collect market information as of the close of trading
on Thursday, February 22 obtained from among various sources, e.g., the WSJ,
WSJ online, and the cmegroup.com website.
(2) In our next class, we will conclude for now our discussion of interest
rate futures/risk management, which we will resume at a later date when we
will discuss interest rate swaps. During the remaining time in class, we
will discuss stock index and single stock futures.
a. Our initial focus will being reviewing institutional details,
valuation, and hedging.
b. In our next segment we will then focus on how market professionals
use these products in both active and passive strategies.
c. Depending on time, we will also discuss events surround the "flash
crash" and triple witching effects
(3) PreReading: To prepare for class, please read before coming to class
pages 1314 of the "Scams, Scoundrels and Scapegoats ..." article (see the
section titled "War Stories"), which can be found under the
Syllabus/Readings link of the course website. Also, for those of you with a
text, please read Chapters 7 and 8.
(4) MiniLecture 7
(ML7) Stock versus Stock Index Futures Investing 
Please carefully study the following illustration to convince yourself that
the arguments hold. The basic concepts described here will not only help
your understanding of valuation and arbitrage involving stock index futures,
but will also be shown in class to underlie more advanced strategies used in
industry including portable alpha and enhanced indexing.
Assume that you are in a world with the following current market conditions:
S (a stock or stock index) = $100; L (Libor) = 6%; d (div yield) = 2%; and
you have a 1 year (360day) investment horizon. Thus, based on this
information, we know that the oneyear futures price should be:
F = S*[1 + (L  d)*(Tt)/360]
F = 100*[1 + (.06  .02)*360/360] = 104
Now, consider the following two investment strategies, which I argue are
equivalent or that you would be indifferent between choosing:
1. Invest $100 in the stock, or
2. Invest $100 in a money market account and go long one futures based
on that stock (at 104). (This is sometimes referred to as a fully
collateralized futures position.)
Scenario A:
Suppose that after 1 year the stock is now at $120. Your ending wealth from
each of the two strategies are:
1. Wealth = 120 + .02*100 = 122 (stock value plus dividends received)
2. Wealth = 100*(1+.06) + (120  104) = 106 + 16 = 122 (money market
investment plus gain on the futures)
Therefore, both strategies produce the same terminal wealth.
Scenario B:
Suppose that after 1 year the stock is now at $80. Your ending wealth from
each of the two strategies are:
1. Wealth = 80 + .02*100 = 82 (stock value plus dividends received)
2. Wealth = 100*(1+.06) + (80  104) = 106  24 = 82 (money market
investment plus loss on futures)
Again, both strategies produce the identical ending wealth.

January 25, 2018
(1) In our next class, we will begin by reviewing Homework 2. During this
discussion, I will also say a few words about the accounting treatment of
derivatives as it relates to FAS 133.
(2) The main focus of the class will be the hedging and management of
interest rate risk. We will begin with discussing the sensitivities of
interest rate futures to interest rates and discuss the notion of futures
duration. We will then look at some hedging examples including the
construction of synthetic fixed rate and floating rate loans using futures
(with some mention of how you similarly may hedge using swaps, caps, and
forward rate agreements). In doing so, we will examine the merits of stack
versus strip hedging strategies. These examples will then provide a nice
leadin to our exploration of more involved hedging situations in which we
will introduce models that involve duration. To help you prepare for class,
for this having a textbook, please read in advance of class and pay
particular close attention to the examples and material on pages 211217 and
219229 of your text (or equivalent pages if you are using an older edition
of the text).
Following this, we will extent our discussion of interest rate risk
management (with futures) by also exploring immunization strategies. We will
look at the use of derivatives in facilitating both "planning period" and
"assetliability" forms of immunization.
(3) During class we will also look at a case study of the events surrounding
the socalled derivatives "debacle" involving the firm Metellgesselschaft
("MG"). I will email you a couple of related handouts to this case that you
should review prior to coming to class so that you will be better prepared
to discuss. The MG case will nicely reinforce and tie together several
concepts that we have considered recently in class including the merits of a
stack and roll versus strip hedging strategy; some issues related to
backwardation versus contango in futures prices; margins; and the
considerations that firms should give to margining and liquidity maintenance
when conducting a hedging program.
(4) Assignment No. 3 is now posted (due on Wednesday, February 21). Please
note that you will need to collect market information as of the close of
trading on Thursday, February 8 obtained from among various sources, e.g.,
the WSJ, WSJ online, and the cmegroup.com website.
MiniLectures 46
(ML4) Understanding Eurodollar futures
Recall that the underlying "asset" of the Eurodollar futures is actually the
rate on a $1 million 3month Eurodollar time deposit, which you can think of
as the 3month or 90day Libor rate. However, rather than quote prices in
terms of a rate or yield, the exchange uses a convention called the IMM
Index. That is, the futures price is quoted in terms of a number that is
equal to 100 minus the 3month Libor rate. Thus, if you observed a
Eurodollar futures quoted at 96.00, then this corresponds to a 3month Libor
rate or yield of 100.00  96.00 = 4.00%. Similarly a quote of 97.12 would
correspond to a rate of 100  97.12 = 2.88%. A quote of 99.39 would
correspond to a rate of 100  99.39 = 0.61%. (For more discussion, see
pages 152154 of your text or look in the index for Eurodollar futures.)
(ML5) Understanding interest rate futures price quotes and the value of a
price change
Convince yourself that the following price relations indeed hold.
a. For the Tbond, 10year Tnote, and 5year Tnote futures contracts
(which each has a notional dollar contract size of $100,000), the dollar
value of a 1/32nd change in the futures price is $31.25. To illustrate,
assume that the reported futures price quote changes from say 104160 to
104170; the contract then has changed in dollar value by $31.25.
b. For the 2year Tnote, the change in value is $62.50 because the notional
size of the contract is $200,000 as compared to $100,000 for the earlier
three contracts.
c. Note that the last digit in a bond or note futures contract stands for a
fraction of a 1/32. For example, you will see a 0, 2, 5, or a 7 (e.g.,
110160, 110162, 110165, and 110167). A 2 stand for .25/32, 5 stands for
.5/32 and a 7 for .75 1/32, and a 0 of course means zero fractions of a
32nd. Also, note that the Tbond futures minimum tick size is 1/32, so the
last digit in its quote is always 0.
d. For the Eurodollar futures (which has a $1mm notional dollar contract
size), a 1 basis point change translates to a change in price of $25. In
other words, if the futures price changes from say 95.00 to either 95.01 or
94.99 (which means a change in yield from 5.00% to either 4.99% or 5.01%),
the change in value of a contract is $25 (positive or negative depending on
whether the position is held long or short, respectively). For this reason,
we refer to the Eurodollar futures as having a DV01 (i.e., the "Dollar Value
of a 1 basis point change") equal to $25. Also, corresponding to this, the
Modified duration of the Eurodollar futures is .25. To see this note that
$25 = MD x 0.0001 x $1mm; thus MD must equal .25. The minimum tick for the
Eurodollar futures depends on the contract maturity: for the nearby contract
it is .25 of a basis point and for all other maturities is .50 basis points.
(ML6) Reading Corporate Bond quotations
Corporate bond quotations are typically quoted in points and one hundreds of
par (whereas government securities such as Treasury bonds and notes are
quoted in points and thirtyseconds of par). To illustrate, suppose you saw
a corporate bond quoted at say 108.93. This simply means its price is
108.93% of par. Thus, if you are working with a par or face amount of
$1,000, then the price would be $1,089.30. Alternatively, the quote may be
reported with a $ sign in front; e.g., $108.93. This price would be
interpreted the same and would mean $108.93 per $100 of par or $1089.30 per
$1000 of par. Similarly, a quote of 97.500 would translate into a price of
$975.00 per $1000 of par.
Also, in contrast to equities, the secondary market for most corporate bonds
is not very liquid (and feature relatively large bidask spreads). This
problem has been further exacerbated by DoddFrank that has diminished the
role of banks as liquidity providers in this market. The issue of liquidity
will come up in our next class when we discuss immunization strategies using
futures.
Sometimes when computing the yield to maturity on a bond, you may or may not
get the same reported yield that you see on the Finramarkets quote site. If
not, this could be for a variety of reasons including the fact that the bond
may be callable. Some reporting agencies provide what is known as the yield
to worst, which is the lower of yield to maturity and yield to call.
Regardless, you can easily calculate your own yield from the information
provided.


January 12, 2018
(1) Assignment 2 is now posted (due on Wednesday, February 7). Please note that you will
need to obtain various pieces of market information as of the close of
trading on Thursday, January 25. You can get these by going to the CME Group
exchange website, globalrates.com, the WSJ, and/or WSJonline. Also,
please give the assignment a quick read prior to coming to our next class so
that you can more easily pick up on key thoughts during the lecture.
(2) To briefly recap our first lecture, we began by reviewing key tenets of
Finance for purposes of developing a framework for understanding the value
proposition of financial risk management. Following that we introduced a
more formal economic framework for analyzing whether a firm's engagement in
financial risk management is justifiable from the perspective of its
shareholders. Potential channels that we identified through which risk
management can enhance firm value included "numerator effects" (that is, the
potential of risk management to have effects on future expected net cash
flows) due to, for example, the reduction of expected bankruptcy, financial
distress, and related business disruption costs; ensuring funding to support
the firm's strategic plan; and the reduction of taxes. Basically, this
means that to the extent that the firm employs more debt, has higher growth
opportunities, and has significant tax loss carryforwards or is in the
convex region of marginal tax rates, then the firm is more likely to
experience greater potential benefits from hedging.
We also referred to "denominator" effects, which refers to the potential of
risk management to have an effect on lowering a firm's cost of capital. I
also referenced the role of executive compensation and ownership structure
on the incentives of managers to engage (or not engage) in risk management.
Following this, we introduced a definition of a derivative, considered a
number of common derivative structures (e.g., swaps, forwards, futures, and
options), and identified their market venue (both OTC and exchangetrade
instruments). In addition, we looked at recent BIS statistics regarding OTC
market size including breakdowns according to product and instrument type,
and by currency and maturity. We also looked at various market statistics
for exchangetraded futures.
We then discussed an early and seminal application of hedging with a
"linear" derivative such as futures. Specifically, we looked at the Salomon
Brothers/Merrill Lynch underwriting of an IBM debt offering and the
accompanying Tbond futures hedge that was used to control the interest rate
risk inherent in the underwriting. In our review, we did some risk analysis
and applied a commonly used measure of risk often used in fixed income
analysis known as duration. We will use duration, modified duration (MD) and
convexity throughout the course as well as related concepts such as DV01 (an
industry term that refers to the dollar value of a 1 basis point interest
rate movement and is computed according to DV01 = MD x Price x .0001).
Following this, we looked at an application involving "non linear"
derivatives such as options. Specifically, we looked at how Household
Industries was able to monetize an exposure to a large holding of Time
Warner preferred stock through a debt offering that had embedded option
features. This offering provided the firm with downside risk exposure
while at the same time allowing the firm to participate in some of TW's
potential upside movements. By recognizing the nature of these various
exposures, we were able to use concepts based on option pricing theory to
help price the debt.
Finally, we discussed the concept of natural hedges and how the recognition
of natural hedges can mitigate the need to engage in hedging.
(3) In our next class, we will begin by reviewing the homework. In one of
your assignments you are asked to investigate the risk management practices
of your selected firm, its specific uses of derivatives if any, and most
importantly developing your thoughts rationalizing or disapproving of their
risk management practices based on the economic rationales that we
discussed. Be sure to avoid simply saying that because your selected firm
faces lots of risk that they can benefit from managing risks. This is not
the necessarily so and in some cases can lead to destroying firm value.
Rather, take some time to analyze the firms capital structure and get a
sense for the amount of debt they have outstanding. Is the firm
wellpositioned to service the debt or could a shortfall in cash flow or
earnings create potential problems? Also, is the firm growing or have growth
opportunities that could be impaired due to adverse movements in interest
rates, exchange rates, commodity prices, etc?
Following the homework review, we will discuss an important role (in
addition to hedging) that futures markets fulfillfacilitating price
discovery. We will explore what is price discovery, how futures prices are
used commercially for pricebasing and improving resource allocation and
decisionmaking, and whether there is a government interest in protecting
markets against manipulation. We will introduce the concepts of
backwardation and contango, and discuss the implications of these terms for
futures prices.
We will then continue with our discussion of the first of our two derivative
building blocks: the futures/forward contract. We will discuss similarities
and differences between futures and forward contracts. We will cover reading
and interpreting futures price quotes and related terms of trade. We will
conclude by discussing concepts related to the valuation of futures and
forward contracts. Specifically, we will develop a useful pricing model that
is based on noarbitrage principles and illustrate its robustness by
applying the model to a variety of futures contracts.
Following this, we will review forward rate estimation, using both bond
yield and money market conventions. We will then review contract specs for
several of the interest rate futures that we will be using throughout the
term (including those for Eurodollars, Tnotes, and Tbonds) and begin
developing an understanding of their cash market linkages.
(4) Introduction of MiniLectures:
MiniLectures 1, 2, and 3 Below are a few minilectures to
clarify concepts used in class.
(ML1) Using LIBOR: First, a brief note about performing calculations
with LIBOR interest rates: To determine interest amounts, we will follow
standard market practice. Libor uses an actual/360 day count convention, and
interest is computed using a "simple" or "addon" interest method.
For example, if you were to borrow $1mm today and were to repay the loan in
18 days based on a stated Libor rate of 4%, the amount you would repay is
computed as $1,000,000*(1+L*days/360) or
$1,000,000*(1+.04*18/360)=$1,002,000. (Note that in today's market
environment that shortterm Libor rates are more in the range of 60 basis
points or .60%; hence in the above calculation you would use .0060 in place
of .04.)
(ML2) Volume versus Open Interest: For clarification and your future
reference, here is a short summary explanation to help clarify the
difference between Volume and Open Interest as relates to futures trading.
Volume is a measure of the number of contracts traded during some specified
trading interval, e.g., a trading session, a day, a month, and so on.
Open interest is the number of contracts currently open and outstanding.
Volume is related to open interest, but a change in volume can result in an
increase, decrease, or leave unchanged open interest.
Consider the following example:
Assume that there are 3 traders, x, y, and z, who are each interested in
trading the March 2018 natural gas futures, and which just today assume has
been listed for trading for the first time. Thus, volume for the day is
initially zero and open interest is also zero since the contract heretofore
has never traded.
Trader x sells 1 contract to y, the long. Volume is 1 and open interest is
1.
Trader x next sells 1 contract to z, the long party to this second contract.
Volume for the day is 2 and open interest is also 2. Note that x is now
short 2 contracts while both y and z are long 1 contract each.
Trader y sells 1 contract to z. Volume is now 3 and open interest remains at
2. Note that z is now long 2 contracts and that y has exited the market.
Trader x is still short 2 contracts.
Trader z sells 2 contracts to x. Volume for the day is 5 and open interest
is zero as there are now no open contracts.
(ML3) "Production follows Sales": We spoke in class about one
strategic response to ongoing currency risk that many firms follow, which is
to locate operations close to the point of sale. The result of this is to
push more operating costs into the same currency as to which sales are in.
To illustrate how this reduces cash flow volatility, consider the following
additional simple example.
Assume a U.S. company has annual sales in Mexico in the amount of 100 pesos.
Manufacturing is done in the U.S. where cost of goods sold is $9. The
exchange rate is currently 0.10$/peso, but could fluctuate between .08 and
.12$/peso. Thus, expected $ revenues are $10 and profit (net cash flow) is
$10  $9 or $1. However, if the dollar strengthens to say 0.08$/peso,
$revenues fall to $8 and profit is now a loss of $1. Similarly, if the
dollar weakens to say .120 $/peso, $revenues increase to $12 and profit is
$3. In sum, profits are expected to be $1, but could range between $1 and
+$3.
Now assume the company produces instead in Mexico. Cost of goods sold is
thus 90 pesos (=$9/.1) and profit is 10 pesos (100  90) before conversion
to dollars. $ profits are expected to still be $1 (10*0.10), but could vary
between +$0.80 and +$1.20 (calculated as 10*0.08 and 10*.120). While the
expected profit (net cash flow) remains the same at $1, its volatility due
to exchange rate movements has been reduced.


December 18, 2017

Welcome all to FI 8200
"Derivative Markets"!
I hope that you will find this course to be a superb and one of your
most beneficial experiences at GSU. I am
looking forward to seeing each of you at the first class on January 10. As a
reminder, our class meets at 5:30pm in Room 1215 of the Buckhead Center.
Please check back here for
updates throughout the term. Also, I will be communicating with you through
your student.gsu.edu email account so please get in the habit of
checking it regularly. (If you prefer to receive your messages at another email
address, please link your gsu student address to it as this is the only email
address that is officially recognized by the university for communication to
students.)
Please do the following prior to the first day of class:
(1) Review and download the Spring 2018 syllabus (see the "Syllabus/Readings" link)
(2) The textbook is optional, but if you want to get one the ISBN number
is 9781405150491. Note that any used/older edition
will
also work fine.
(3) Go to www.cmegroup.com, shade
"Education" and click on the Education Home link. This will take you to
www.cmegroup.com/education.html and you will see a set of tutorials/presentations that provide a nice introduction
to derivatives, exchanges, and futures. At a minimum please take a few
minutes to watch
the following video group at:
(i) Managing Risk at CME Group  How it All Works (there are
about 8 chapter videos, each only about 12 minutes long).
http://www.cmegroup.com/education/managingriskcmegrouphowitworks.html
(ii) And then at
futuresfundamentals.cmegroup.com/, go quickly through the various links
under "Get the Basics", "See the Impact", and "Explore the Marketplace".
(4) Important: Please begin to build a spread sheet that will compute duration and
modified duration. Along these lines, you should also go ahead and begin working on
Assignment No. 1. I will
send it to you via a separate email with instructions. Note that I will
attempt to post all homework exercises under "Assignments" on the course
website. For more information on this, I will send you an email with a
couple of short articles attached that provide an excellent primer on calculating duration with
examples. As you have time, please also:
(5) Give a quick review to the assigned chapters for the first day of class
and begin reading articles 2 and 3 that are posted under the
Syllabus/Readings link.
(6)
Here is a brief summary of what we will discuss at our first lecture:
We
will begin by developing a working definition of a derivative, and then
consider a number of common derivative structures as well as identify their
market venue (both OTC and exchangetraded instruments). We will look at
some recently released statistics regarding global market size, including
breakdowns according to product and instrument type, and maturity.
In our
inspection of the various types of derivatives, we will see that basically
all derivatives can be viewed as one or a combination of two basic building
blocks: the futures/forward contract and the option contract.
To illustrate both types of contracts, we will review two case studies. In
the first, we will review an early case study regarding the use of financial
futures for hedgingthe Salomon Bros/Merrill Lynch underwriting of IBM's
first public debt offering. This event is sometimes credited with being the
true motivating birth of the financial futures markets. In the second case
study, we will look a structured debt security. Using basic financial
engineering techniques, we will identify and value embedded options in the
product and show how the overall security was priced from a yield
perspective.
We will subsequently explore the "why" of financial risk management in which
we examine the various channels through which financial risk management can
potentially enhance shareholder value. We will discuss how and under what
conditions hedging can reduce financial distress and related business
disruption costs, reduce underinvestment incentives and adverse selection
problems, and reduce taxes.
See all at our first class and please do not hesitate to call me or stop by
at any time!
