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February 4, 2008

Super Tuesday: No Democratic front runner likely to emerge

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[Transcript]

ATLANTA - With a gaggle of delegates at stake during the 22-state "Super Tuesday” contests, you might expect Feb. 5 to be a super shakedown, where a candidate will clearly separate from his or her or opponents and emerge as a clear-cut leader of the pack.

And while that may end up being the case on the Republican side of the party line, where Arizona Senator John McCain clearly has momentum, it’s highly unlikely either New York Senator Hillary Clinton or Illinois Senator Barack Obama will wake Wednesday with a significant lead after the largest-ever number of  presidential primary elections in U.S history.

Daniel Franklin, an assistant professor of political science at Georgia State University and an expert in presidential politics, expects the Democratic race to be tight, and says we likely won’t have a clear picture in the race after Super Tuesday.

FRANKLIN:  I think it’s going to be very close, I don’t think that the outcome is going to be as clear the day after Super Tuesday as it is today.  (length 0:08)

In states like Georgia, numbers show Clinton with a slight lead, but in this race Franklin says that means very little.

FRANKLIN: It’s very hard to do polling on this kind of race, because polling is based on projected turnout and since we really don’t know who’s going to come out; it’s very difficult to tell what the outcome is going to be. Look at how far off the polls were in New Hampshire. (length 0:15)

For the Republicans however, Franklin says things are quite different.

FRANKLIN: I think McCain is gaining momentum. I think it’s certainly his race to lose now. (length 0:06)

At stake on the Democratic side will be 1,700 of the 4,049 delegates. A total of 2,025 are needed for the nomination. Currently Clinton leads with 237 delegates to Obama’s 135. Thus, even if either Clinton or Obama won every one of those delegates, it still wouldn't be enough.

Delegate allocation makes less sense than the electoral college. Half of a jurisdiction's base vote is determined by the number of Electors assigned to that state, and half are computed by the number of people who voted for the Democratic candidate in the last three elections. Does this make any sense?

FRANKLIN: Each individual state determines its own rules for the primaries, the national party does not standardize the way the delegates are sorted out, but it tends to be weighted toward the winner in most states. (length 0:13)

Franklin says the move to compress the primary campaign cycle and have a huge presidential primary date is intended to create a front runner. But that’s not the case with the Democrats.

FRANKLIN: The way that the primaries are frontloaded, they’re designed to produce a front runner and eventually a candidate fairly early on in the process because the general feeling is if candidates get ripped up in the primaries, they’re going to have more problems in the general election. (length 0.17)

And if there is a long, protracted race, it could take a toll on the one left standing.

FRANKLIN: If the Republicans shake out the way I expect they will on Super Tuesday, and McCain becomes the heir apparent and the democrats have a long tough road after that, then it could damage the democratic candidate. (length 0:16)

And while the two candidates may wage a bitter fight against one another, he doesn’t expect it to fracture the Democratic party come the general election.

FRANKLIN: I don’t see that the rift between or the difference between Obama and Clinton is really substantive and therefore, I don’t think that will translate to a split in the party. I think that either side will have no trouble backing the other candidate; it’s not an ideological thing. (length 0:23)

And what about this battle… Obama is framed as the fresh faced new kid, with optimism to spare, where Clinton is viewed as the sometimes cold, establishment candidate. 

FRANKLIN: I think that there is a difference in the way Obama and Clinton are selling themselves, but look, that’s the way you run campaigns. As we say in the South, if you have lemons, make lemonade. So if you don’t have a lot of experience, you are the outsider candidate. If you have a lot of face time in Washington, then you are the voice of experience. The campaigns are making the messages they have to make given the backgrounds of the candidates they are dealing with. (length 0:29)

For Georgia State RadioLine, this is William Inman.